Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60     65.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  24.7  30.8  32.0  24.5  32.3  21.2  21.9  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  55.0  51.0  41.0  35.0  41.0  54.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  28.0  47.0  12.0  30.0   1.0  19.0  24.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.3%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%       12.0%        7.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        5.0%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.6%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.6%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        8.6%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        4.4%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.5%        4.8%        6.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL062022 220905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60     65.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  24.7  30.8  32.0  24.5  32.3  21.2  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%