Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  32.0  34.8  29.7  29.2  31.0  22.5  24.4  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  46.0  38.0  35.0  45.0  54.0  35.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  43.0  21.0   9.0  -1.0  11.0  18.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        3.5%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       13.7%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%        6.2%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        6.2%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        6.2%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%        7.0%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        3.4%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        2.5%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 AL062022 220905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  32.0  34.8  29.7  29.2  31.0  22.5  24.4  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%