Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  31.9  27.7  24.0  32.3  24.4  24.5  18.3  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  40.0  36.0  36.0  50.0  46.0  33.0  27.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  19.0  13.0  42.0 -28.0  39.0  30.0  13.0  N  U  U  N VU  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        2.7%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.0%       14.8%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%        6.9%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        6.9%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        6.9%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%        7.1%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        4.2%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        3.2%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 AL062022 220905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  31.9  27.7  24.0  32.3  24.4  24.5  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%