Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  28.4  29.5  29.3  31.8  23.1  20.5  19.3  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  37.0  35.0  37.0  52.0  39.0  31.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  12.0  25.0  20.0   2.0  25.0  38.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   9.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        4.6%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       20.0%       15.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       11.6%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       11.6%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       11.4%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%        8.3%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        5.5%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        3.6%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 AL062022 220906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  28.4  29.5  29.3  31.8  23.1  20.5  19.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   9.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%