Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     65.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  26.3  28.6  33.7  23.8  20.7  13.2  22.3  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  37.0  43.0  50.0  45.0  33.0  23.0  24.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  53.0  25.0   4.0  16.0  36.0  37.0  32.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   4.0   3.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.8%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        9.7%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.5%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        4.4%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        4.4%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        4.6%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        4.1%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%        3.2%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 AL062022 220906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     65.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  26.3  28.6  33.7  23.8  20.7  13.2  22.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   4.0   3.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%