Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  27.2  32.4  31.1  23.0  20.5  17.5  20.5  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  37.0  44.0  52.0  39.0  31.0  21.0  24.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  35.0   0.0  -9.0  40.0  59.0  56.0  64.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  66.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  12.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        5.6%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.4%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        2.7%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        2.1%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 AL062022 220906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  27.2  32.4  31.1  23.0  20.5  17.5  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  66.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  12.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%