Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  33.6  29.2  22.7  24.5  13.7  20.9  25.6  N  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  45.0  55.0  53.0  35.0  24.0  23.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0 -18.0 -12.0  41.0  32.0  28.0  75.0  91.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   2.0   5.0  16.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        3.7%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       17.8%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%        9.6%        8.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        9.6%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%        9.6%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.8%        9.6%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        7.7%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        3.7%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 AL062022 220906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  33.6  29.2  22.7  24.5  13.7  20.9  25.6  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   2.0   5.0  16.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%