Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60     65.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  30.4  24.4  19.4  22.2  21.6  20.3  43.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  55.0  45.0  37.0  28.0  21.0  24.0  20.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  85.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0   4.0  29.0  28.0  18.0  35.0  58.0  45.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  61.0  65.0  72.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  10.0  20.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.5%       17.1%       30.8%
 25kt / 24h       38.5%       48.0%       43.2%
 30kt / 24h       36.2%       41.0%       38.6%
 35kt / 24h       35.3%       41.0%       38.1%
 40kt / 24h       35.2%       40.5%       37.8%
 45kt / 36h       26.1%       27.1%       26.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.1%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%       15.7%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        4.4%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        3.9%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 AL062022 220907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60     65.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  30.4  24.4  19.4  22.2  21.6  20.3  43.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  61.0  65.0  72.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  10.0  20.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%