Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220907 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 65.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.5 24.5 19.2 19.9 12.9 19.1 30.0 61.5 U N N N F N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 55.0 51.0 39.0 36.0 23.0 25.0 30.0 25.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 80.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 32.0 42.0 20.0 40.0 31.0 57.0 21.0 U N N U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 57.0 56.0 57.0 65.0 69.0 70.0 62.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 11.0 -33.0 N N N N N U U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 28.1% 15.3% 21.7% 25kt / 24h 37.1% 48.9% 43.0% 30kt / 24h 32.1% 44.9% 38.5% 35kt / 24h 32.1% 44.9% 38.5% 40kt / 24h 21.5% 42.8% 32.1% 45kt / 36h 25.8% 30.5% 28.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 15.2% 7.6% 55kt / 48h 10.7% 21.9% 16.3% 70kt / 48h 1.5% 5.7% 3.6% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 3.4% 2.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.32 AL062022 220907 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 65.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.5 24.5 19.2 19.9 12.9 19.1 30.0 61.5 N N N N U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 57.0 56.0 57.0 65.0 69.0 70.0 62.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 11.0 -33.0 N N N N N F F VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%