Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220907 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 65.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 19.9 23.9 17.3 21.2 17.9 40.0 58.7 N N N F N F U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 44.0 37.0 33.0 21.0 24.0 21.0 10.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 67.4 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 21.0 16.0 19.0 38.0 37.0 57.0 55.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 57.0 60.0 64.0 69.0 68.0 66.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 13.0 11.0 24.0 33.0 N N N N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 26.0% 15.2% 20.6% 25kt / 24h 29.8% 42.0% 35.9% 30kt / 24h 27.4% 38.2% 32.8% 35kt / 24h 27.4% 38.2% 32.8% 40kt / 24h 18.4% 37.3% 27.8% 45kt / 36h 24.4% 18.3% 21.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.5% 3.8% 55kt / 48h 9.5% 16.0% 12.7% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 2.6% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 AL062022 220907 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 65.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 19.9 23.9 17.3 21.2 17.9 40.0 58.7 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 57.0 60.0 64.0 69.0 68.0 66.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 13.0 11.0 24.0 33.0 N N N N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%