Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220907 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 65.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.7 17.3 13.2 20.4 23.0 49.9 73.6 N N F F N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 34.0 29.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 19.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 75.7 33.0 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 37.0 34.0 14.0 46.0 77.0 60.0 79.0 N N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 62.0 62.0 64.0 67.0 66.0 58.0 U U N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 13.0 34.0 54.0 61.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 27.3% 19.8% 23.5% 25kt / 24h 41.1% 54.6% 47.8% 30kt / 24h 39.9% 54.4% 47.1% 35kt / 24h 39.9% 54.4% 47.1% 40kt / 24h 18.8% 52.7% 35.8% 45kt / 36h 27.5% 24.8% 26.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 11.6% 5.8% 55kt / 48h 10.5% 20.8% 15.7% 70kt / 48h 1.3% 3.2% 2.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.44 AL062022 220907 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 65.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.7 17.3 13.2 20.4 23.0 49.9 73.6 N N N U N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 62.0 62.0 64.0 67.0 66.0 58.0 F F N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 13.0 34.0 54.0 61.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%