Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220908 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.80 65.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 16.9 14.0 16.2 20.6 37.1 60.4 62.7 N F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 29.0 21.0 21.0 23.0 19.0 4.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 79.6 54.8 8.7 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 18.0 34.0 31.0 56.0 76.0 85.0 11.0 N U N N N N F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 61.0 63.0 62.0 70.0 64.0 64.0 62.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 6.0 10.0 15.0 14.0 35.0 40.0 N N N U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 22.7% 14.1% 18.4% 25kt / 24h 27.9% 39.7% 33.8% 30kt / 24h 27.7% 35.9% 31.8% 35kt / 24h 27.7% 35.9% 31.8% 40kt / 24h 15.2% 35.9% 25.5% 45kt / 36h 28.5% 15.4% 21.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.2% 3.1% 55kt / 48h 5.2% 8.2% 6.7% 70kt / 48h 0.7% 1.4% 1.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.44 AL062022 220908 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.80 65.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 16.9 14.0 16.2 20.6 37.1 60.4 62.7 N N U U N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 61.0 63.0 62.0 70.0 64.0 64.0 62.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 6.0 10.0 15.0 14.0 35.0 40.0 N N N F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%