Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220908 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.70 65.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 10.7 20.4 20.6 27.5 51.3 59.1 52.7 F F N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 21.0 21.0 24.0 23.0 20.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 60.7 18.0 -12.4 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 15.0 28.0 45.0 85.0 50.0 65.0 9.0 U U U N F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 61.0 65.0 65.0 64.0 67.0 69.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 1.0 18.0 9.0 19.0 16.0 11.0 -17.0 N N VU U VU U U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 57.6% 28.8% 43.2% 25kt / 24h 43.6% 45.1% 44.3% 30kt / 24h 43.6% 41.7% 42.6% 35kt / 24h 43.6% 41.7% 42.6% 40kt / 24h 29.6% 41.7% 35.6% 45kt / 36h 49.6% 24.5% 37.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 12.3% 6.1% 55kt / 48h 2.4% 3.5% 2.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 AL062022 220908 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.70 65.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 10.7 20.4 20.6 27.5 51.3 59.1 52.7 U U N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 61.0 65.0 65.0 64.0 67.0 69.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 1.0 18.0 9.0 19.0 16.0 11.0 -17.0 N N VF F VF F F VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%