Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220908 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 65.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.4 19.8 18.7 18.9 42.0 60.8 64.4 61.5 F N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 20.0 22.0 22.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 62.9 37.7 -10.8 -25.9 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 20.0 30.0 63.0 71.0 64.0 25.0 30.0 N U N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 66.0 69.0 61.0 63.0 57.0 56.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 17.0 5.0 6.0 -20.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 N U N N VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 42.1% 28.1% 35.1% 25kt / 24h 43.1% 50.3% 46.7% 30kt / 24h 43.1% 50.3% 46.7% 35kt / 24h 43.1% 50.3% 46.7% 40kt / 24h 17.1% 48.0% 32.5% 45kt / 36h 35.4% 17.8% 26.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.1% 4.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.36 AL062022 220908 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 65.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.4 19.8 18.7 18.9 42.0 60.8 64.4 61.5 U N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 66.0 69.0 61.0 63.0 57.0 56.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 17.0 5.0 6.0 -20.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 N F N N VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%