Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220908 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.70 64.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 20.1 20.6 29.8 54.3 66.1 58.4 45.9 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 22.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 56.5 5.9 -23.3 -29.5 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 34.0 38.0 38.0 66.0 70.0 -8.0 -27.0 U N N N N N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 64.0 69.0 64.0 60.0 64.0 67.0 65.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 14.0 16.0 8.0 -18.0 -2.0 -19.0 -14.0 U U U U VF N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.0% 5.5% 7.8% 25kt / 24h 9.9% 12.5% 11.2% 30kt / 24h 9.9% 8.5% 9.2% 35kt / 24h 9.9% 8.5% 9.2% 40kt / 24h 1.4% 8.5% 5.0% 45kt / 36h 6.1% 1.4% 3.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.14 AL062022 220908 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.70 64.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 20.1 20.6 29.8 54.3 66.1 58.4 45.9 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 64.0 69.0 64.0 60.0 64.0 67.0 65.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 14.0 16.0 8.0 -18.0 -2.0 -19.0 -14.0 F F F F VU N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5%