Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60     64.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.7  25.6  39.6  64.1  65.0  56.3  35.7  N  N  N  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  20.0  24.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  70.1  42.7   1.8 -14.2 -25.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  30.0  36.0  71.0  71.0  18.0  36.0  -8.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  66.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0   9.0   0.0  -4.0  32.0  20.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  F VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        3.4%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        6.5%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        3.7%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        3.7%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL062022 220909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60     64.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.7  25.6  39.6  64.1  65.0  56.3  35.7  N  N  N  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  66.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0   9.0   0.0  -4.0  32.0  20.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  U VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%