Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     63.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  27.0  39.6  51.4  61.6  46.5  34.4  20.2  N  N  U VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  26.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  70.1  63.6  19.2 -10.9 -18.8 -26.1  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  28.0  71.0  53.0  71.0  11.0 -20.0  14.0  U  U  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  63.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  66.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0  -1.0   1.0  10.0 -12.0   1.0  -2.0  U  U  N  N  U  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        4.2%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        4.7%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        2.6%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        2.6%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL062022 220909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     63.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  27.0  39.6  51.4  61.6  46.5  34.4  20.2  N  N  F VF VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  63.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  66.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0  -1.0   1.0  10.0 -12.0   1.0  -2.0  F  F  N  N  F  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%