Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.40     61.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  38.8  53.7  66.3  52.7  32.6  22.6  10.6  N  U VU VU VU  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  70.1  61.5  41.0  -4.2 -16.6 -25.3 -26.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  96.0  36.0  64.0 -26.0   7.0  13.0   5.0  U  F  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  57.0  57.0  62.0  68.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   1.0 -13.0  10.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  U  N VF  U  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        3.5%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 AL062022 220909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.40     61.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  38.8  53.7  66.3  52.7  32.6  22.6  10.6  N  F VF VF VF  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  57.0  57.0  62.0  68.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   1.0 -13.0  10.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  F  N VU  F  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        6.5%        3.3%