Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220909 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 59.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 49.3 61.2 56.1 42.2 33.4 21.1 10.8 U VU VU VU VU U N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 17.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.1 58.6 43.0 16.7 -13.1 -23.3 -28.7 -29.5 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 18.0 78.0 70.0 -8.0 8.0 21.0 -2.0 N U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 64.0 62.0 55.0 59.0 66.0 70.0 U N N N U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 19.0 23.0 3.0 -17.0 -6.0 -7.0 -7.0 U VU VU N VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.9% 1.9% 4.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 AL062022 220909 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 59.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.