Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.6  61.5  58.0  47.2  34.0  23.5  14.1  10.1 VU VU VU VU  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.5  36.0  19.4  -1.3 -12.4 -21.0 -25.9 -23.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  69.0  41.0 -45.0  13.0  10.0  -2.0  55.0  U  N  N VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  69.0  74.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  28.0  12.0  -9.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  -9.0  N VU  U  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        0.4%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.22

 AL062022 220910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.