Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062022 220910 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.00 54.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 147.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 59.9 51.3 41.9 40.5 35.0 20.6 13.0 7.3 VU VU VU U U N F VF Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.1 2.7 -5.9 -15.3 -23.3 -26.3 -26.8 -17.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 17.0 -33.0 -25.0 26.0 28.0 14.0 14.0 N U VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 65.0 59.0 58.0 62.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 N N U U N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 27.0 -22.0 -13.0 -12.0 -9.0 -3.0 -6.0 -5.0 VU VF VF F F N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.48 AL062022 220910 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.00 54.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.