Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.40     53.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.8  46.0  42.9  33.1  24.1  11.4   8.7   8.5 VU VU VU  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.7  -3.8  -8.6 -12.7 -15.9 -17.3 -18.2  -6.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0 -41.0 -20.0   8.0  15.0   2.0  48.0   0.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  62.0  65.0  70.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -18.0 -17.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -6.0  -9.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.72

 AL062022 220910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.40     53.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.