Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.30     52.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.6  42.4  34.2  31.4  15.5   8.5   7.5   6.4 VU VU  U  U  F  F VF VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.2  -5.4  -6.6  -7.7 -11.3 -12.8  -8.8   1.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0  -5.0   8.0  14.0  31.0  26.0   0.0  -1.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  64.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -18.0  -9.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  -7.0  F VF  F  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.84

 AL062022 220910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.30     52.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.