Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072022 220916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     57.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  23.6  18.7  23.6  19.2  23.4  23.0  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  62.0  52.0  45.0  80.0  94.0  97.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  -9.0  22.0  53.0  28.0  32.0  48.0  38.0 VU  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       12.2%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        5.0%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        4.9%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%        4.9%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%        8.3%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        7.2%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        2.2%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       38.5%       10.4%       24.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 AL072022 220916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     57.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  23.6  18.7  23.6  19.2  23.4  23.0  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%