Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072022 220917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  22.7  15.1  18.9  26.0  22.3  26.7  22.5  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  71.0  88.0  90.0  78.0  78.0  70.0  54.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  51.0  64.0  59.0  44.0  62.0  38.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0   9.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        4.2%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       18.2%       32.0%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       16.9%       15.2%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       16.9%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h       11.1%       16.9%       14.0%
 45kt / 36h       19.1%       23.0%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.5%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h       23.2%       16.4%       19.8%
 70kt / 48h       17.8%        6.8%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       46.4%       16.5%       31.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 AL072022 220917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  22.7  15.1  18.9  26.0  22.3  26.7  22.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%