Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072022 220917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  25.4  29.8  26.1  28.4  27.6  28.9  29.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  89.0  73.0  67.0  64.0  66.0  65.0  74.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  68.0  81.0  79.0  73.0  67.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   5.0  10.0  12.0  17.0  11.0  12.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        8.5%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       26.7%       40.3%       33.5%
 30kt / 24h       13.7%       25.3%       19.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       25.1%       17.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%       24.1%       13.3%
 45kt / 36h       18.3%       27.2%       22.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.4%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h       23.0%       19.0%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h       11.9%        5.8%        8.9%
 65kt / 72h       48.6%       13.0%       30.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 AL072022 220917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  25.4  29.8  26.1  28.4  27.6  28.9  29.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   5.0  10.0  12.0  17.0  11.0  12.0  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%