Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072022 220919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     68.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  21.7  26.1  30.0  20.5  31.6  27.5  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  83.0  67.0  44.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  53.0  45.0  42.0  80.0  57.0  85.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0  11.0  14.0  10.0  15.0  15.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.7%       10.7%       13.2%
 25kt / 24h       26.7%       31.0%       28.9%
 30kt / 24h       21.1%       23.2%       22.2%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       23.2%       18.9%
 40kt / 24h       14.6%       23.2%       18.9%
 45kt / 36h       24.4%       11.2%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%       10.6%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        1.1%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h       17.3%        1.9%        9.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 AL072022 220919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     68.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  21.7  26.1  30.0  20.5  31.6  27.5  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0  11.0  14.0  10.0  15.0  15.0  27.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%