Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072022 220921 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 71.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 82.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 34.6 28.8 26.8 30.2 26.6 35.3 70.2 N U N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 84.0 66.0 49.0 37.0 34.0 19.0 16.0 33.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 38.6 32.4 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 34.0 88.0 105.0 69.0 73.0 145.0 87.0 N N F F N N VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 64.0 68.0 69.0 63.0 61.0 64.0 57.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 13.0 13.0 16.0 25.0 40.0 27.0 -48.0 U U U U VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 26.3% 8.8% 17.5% 25kt / 24h 22.4% 16.8% 19.6% 30kt / 24h 15.1% 11.1% 13.1% 35kt / 24h 13.8% 11.1% 12.5% 40kt / 24h 6.5% 9.8% 8.2% 45kt / 36h 51.8% 8.1% 30.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.98 AL072022 220921 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 71.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 34.6 28.8 26.8 30.2 26.6 35.3 70.2 N F N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 64.0 68.0 69.0 63.0 61.0 64.0 57.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 13.0 13.0 16.0 25.0 40.0 27.0 -48.0 F F F F VF VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 7.0% 3.5%