Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072022 220921 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 71.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 27.3 25.8 32.8 28.0 27.6 43.4 79.8 U N N U N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 45.0 34.0 31.0 28.0 19.0 14.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 44.6 31.5 -19.1 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 103.0 100.0 50.0 74.0 75.0 133.0 138.0 N F F N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 66.0 69.0 66.0 62.0 66.0 57.0 52.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 12.0 13.0 20.0 25.0 34.0 -35.0 -66.0 U U U VU VU VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 30.5% 5.7% 18.1% 25kt / 24h 15.1% 9.3% 12.2% 30kt / 24h 12.1% 4.8% 8.5% 35kt / 24h 10.7% 4.8% 7.7% 40kt / 24h 6.3% 4.7% 5.5% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.94 AL072022 220921 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 71.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 27.3 25.8 32.8 28.0 27.6 43.4 79.8 N N N F N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 66.0 69.0 66.0 62.0 66.0 57.0 52.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 12.0 13.0 20.0 25.0 34.0 -35.0 -66.0 F F F VF VF VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 10.1% 5.2%