Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072022 220922 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.80 71.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 30.1 29.2 27.7 48.4 73.5 37.4 41.1 U N N N VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 29.0 22.0 15.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 44.6 31.5 -40.3 -54.9 -62.1 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 32.0 52.0 71.0 153.0 134.0 80.0 25.0 N N N N VF VF N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 58.0 63.0 59.0 48.0 48.0 56.0 N N U N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 33.0 41.0 39.0 -64.0 -94.0 -20.0 10.0 VU VU VU VU VF VF VF U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.8% 0.9% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 1.9% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 AL072022 220922 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.80 71.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 30.1 29.2 27.7 48.4 73.5 37.4 41.1 F N N N VF VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 58.0 63.0 59.0 48.0 48.0 56.0 N N F N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 33.0 41.0 39.0 -64.0 -94.0 -20.0 10.0 VF VF VF VF VU VU VU F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 50.0% 33.3% 41.6%