Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072022 220923 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.90 69.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 35.7 55.8 70.0 47.8 41.6 46.4 39.8 N U VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 10.0 23.0 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 42.3 31.5 33.6 12.7 -52.8 -58.4 -64.7 -73.4 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 65.0 141.0 149.0 102.0 64.0 47.0 82.0 63.0 N VF VF F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 53.0 52.0 44.0 52.0 56.0 60.0 N U U U VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 49.0 27.0 -51.0 -75.0 -36.0 -6.0 -16.0 -16.0 VU VU VF VF VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.3% 0.7% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.74 AL072022 220923 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.90 69.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 35.7 55.8 70.0 47.8 41.6 46.4 39.8 N F VF VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 53.0 52.0 44.0 52.0 56.0 60.0 N F F F VF F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 49.0 27.0 -51.0 -75.0 -36.0 -6.0 -16.0 -16.0 VF VF VU VU VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.8% 46.0% 23.9%