Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072022 220923 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 61.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 65.0 70.9 48.5 34.2 39.8 41.2 30.1 17.0 VU VU VU U U VU N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 24.8 -33.8 -50.8 -54.4 -58.9 -67.0 -68.0 -68.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 132.0 74.0 67.0 78.0 76.0 61.0 48.0 F F N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 52.0 51.0 55.0 60.0 59.0 58.0 67.0 U U U U N U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -61.0 -80.0 -51.0 -19.0 10.0 -29.0 -4.0 2.0 VF VF VF VF U VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.68 AL072022 220923 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 61.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110.