Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072022 220924 00UTC Storm Located at : 42.30 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 147.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 67.0 51.6 39.4 40.5 50.3 39.8 21.8 17.8 VU VU U U VU U N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -36.3 -43.0 -44.4 -46.0 -57.2 -58.8 -59.3 -59.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 41.0 68.0 74.0 80.0 89.0 75.0 41.0 F N N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 54.0 60.0 67.0 71.0 73.0 74.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-109.0 -60.0 -23.0 -9.0 -33.0 -37.0 6.0 14.0 VF VF VF F VF VF N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.62 AL072022 220924 00UTC Storm Located at : 42.30 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100.