Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072022 220924 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.10 61.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.7 47.1 58.6 62.4 42.8 25.8 15.9 20.7 VU VU VU VU VU N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -25.3 -32.4 -34.2 -39.6 -43.8 -44.6 -44.4 -45.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 60.0 26.0 57.0 94.0 62.0 50.0 64.0 N N U N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 47.0 57.0 64.0 69.0 66.0 73.0 84.0 U VU U N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -26.0 -23.0 2.0 5.0 -23.0 -3.0 11.0 33.0 VF VF N N VF N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 17.12 AL072022 220924 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.10 61.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.