Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072022 220924 18UTC Storm Located at : 47.70 60.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 158.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.2 52.8 49.2 39.1 25.5 15.3 23.3 23.6 VU VU VU U N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 3.4 2.1 -7.0 -8.6 -9.7 -9.5 -10.0 -10.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 47.0 85.0 105.0 56.0 53.0 31.0 31.0 U N F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 64.0 64.0 65.0 75.0 81.0 73.0 U U N N N F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 3.0 -49.0 -18.0 -2.0 9.0 26.0 27.0 VF N VF VF N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.62 AL072022 220924 18UTC Storm Located at : 47.70 60.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.