Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082022 220925 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.20 37.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 37.4 29.1 25.9 21.0 19.9 29.1 29.1 U U N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.7 64.2 65.4 68.0 70.8 76.5 84.3 84.3 U U U U U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -162.0 -93.0 -64.0 -51.0 -51.0-127.0 -22.0 -22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 40.0 39.0 38.0 32.0 27.0 24.0 24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -3.0 -4.0 -6.0 -10.0 -18.0 -24.0 -24.0 F N F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.98 AL082022 220925 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.20 37.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.