Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102022 220923 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 20.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 28.9 28.0 30.2 39.3 51.8 63.3 71.6 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 81.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 105.0 62.0 45.0 52.0 9.0 17.0 62.0 21.0 F N N N U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 53.0 47.0 41.0 36.0 37.0 41.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 13.0 9.0 5.0 10.0 0.0 13.0 19.0 U U U N U N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.04 AL102022 220923 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 20.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.