Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102022 220924 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 20.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 27.7 33.6 39.1 52.5 62.9 71.8 71.5 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.6 75.8 73.0 71.7 71.7 70.4 70.4 71.7 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 40.0 9.0 14.0 1.0 71.0 18.0 35.0 N N U U U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 50.0 46.0 44.0 41.0 42.0 40.0 41.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 0.0 7.0 8.0 17.0 U N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.56 AL102022 220924 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 20.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.