Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102022 220924 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 20.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.3 40.6 42.4 51.5 63.4 69.7 75.5 75.5 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.7 70.4 69.2 69.2 69.2 71.7 71.7 71.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 22.0 5.0 4.0 69.0 16.0 3.0 3.0 N U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 45.0 42.0 41.0 39.0 43.0 43.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 10.0 2.0 -2.0 11.0 14.0 24.0 24.0 U U N N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.14 AL102022 220924 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 20.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.