Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102022 220925 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.50 20.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.5 45.1 52.2 58.1 66.3 78.4 72.5 72.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.2 72.9 72.9 72.9 75.4 76.7 76.7 76.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 41.0 38.0 104.0 36.0 16.0 74.0 74.0 N N N F N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 43.0 41.0 42.0 42.0 52.0 52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 5.0 2.0 6.0 24.0 24.0 48.0 48.0 U N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.96 AL102022 220925 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.50 20.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.