Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102022 220925 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 20.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.20 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.5 55.1 59.7 63.8 69.0 77.0 68.9 68.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 77.9 77.9 79.2 79.2 81.7 81.7 83.0 83.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 6.0 78.0 69.0 8.0 25.0 24.0 24.0 U U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 43.0 41.0 44.0 43.0 48.0 55.0 55.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 4.0 10.0 11.0 35.0 36.0 36.0 N N N U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.96 AL102022 220925 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 20.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.