Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112022 220928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     34.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  15.9  21.7  28.6  42.2  45.2  54.2  54.2  F  F  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  16.0  12.0   9.0  10.0  10.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 112.4 106.6 103.0  99.4 101.2 110.5 110.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  14.0   6.0  30.0  39.0 -14.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  47.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   7.0   8.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 AL112022 220928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     34.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.