Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112022 220929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     35.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  26.4  33.3  41.0  46.2  57.7  25.4  25.4  N  N  U VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  13.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5 104.8 101.2  99.4 101.2 106.6 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  30.0   2.0  16.0  -5.0   7.0  16.0  16.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  45.0  56.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0  10.0  16.0  14.0  17.0   4.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.02

 AL112022 220929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     35.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.