Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112022 220929 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 37.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.00 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 40.6 44.0 45.9 56.3 56.3 56.3 56.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 13.0 14.0 16.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.2 99.4 99.4 101.2 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 1.0 -7.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 43.0 43.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 15.0 16.0 14.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.78 AL112022 220929 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 37.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.