Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122022 221004 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     30.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  33.5  35.5  36.5  49.6  49.9  46.8  33.4  N  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  14.0  11.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 122.9 116.5 110.5 104.8 104.8 104.8 106.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  58.0  66.0  56.0  53.0   7.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   8.0  11.0   5.0  24.0  10.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  N VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.7%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 AL122022 221004 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     30.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  33.5  35.5  36.5  49.6  49.9  46.8  33.4  N  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   8.0  11.0   5.0  24.0  10.0   4.0  N  N  F  F  N VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%