Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122022 221005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     30.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  37.1  45.6  46.8  49.5  49.5  49.5  49.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  14.0  10.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 118.6 114.4 110.5 108.5 108.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  45.0  64.0  38.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   7.0   5.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 AL122022 221005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     30.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  37.1  45.6  46.8  49.5  49.5  49.5  49.5  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   7.0   5.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  F  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%