Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122022 221005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     32.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  42.2  42.3  44.9  47.4  47.4  47.4  47.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  12.0  13.0  12.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 118.6 116.5 116.5 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0   7.0  22.0  28.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   1.0  10.0  12.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 AL122022 221005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     32.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  42.2  42.3  44.9  47.4  47.4  47.4  47.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   1.0  10.0  12.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.3%        0.1%        0.7%