Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122022 221006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     32.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.1  53.6  56.6  54.7  47.5  47.5  47.5  47.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   8.0   9.0  14.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 110.5 112.4 112.4 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  24.0  -7.0 -23.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  23.0  20.0  10.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 AL122022 221006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     32.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.