Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122022 221007 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 36.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.5 51.2 51.5 52.9 52.9 52.9 52.9 52.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 22.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 112.4 114.4 116.5 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -11.0 8.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 VU U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 49.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 AL122022 221007 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 36.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.5 51.2 51.5 52.9 52.9 52.9 52.9 52.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 49.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 F F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 88.0% 0.9% 44.4%