Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132022 221006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     66.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  16.1  14.2  17.5  15.1  14.4  14.9  21.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  53.0  38.0  32.0  44.0  34.0  33.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0  92.0  82.0  50.0  65.0  91.0 128.0 107.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  82.0  82.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        4.1%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       43.6%       30.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       26.3%       16.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       25.6%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       24.3%       12.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.9%       57.1%       36.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.5%       17.7%
 55kt / 48h       38.7%       48.5%       43.6%
 70kt / 48h       14.4%       36.0%       25.2%
 65kt / 72h       47.1%       61.6%       54.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 AL132022 221006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     66.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  16.1  14.2  17.5  15.1  14.4  14.9  21.1  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  82.0  82.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%